Why To Watch
By Mike Chappell and Mike Triplett
For Sporting News
There are plenty of story lines, starting with the men under center. The Colts' Peyton Manning is trying to further establish himself as one of the greatest quarterbacks in league history with a second Super Bowl championship in the past four seasons. He's coming off a league-record fourth MVP award, and adding another Lombardi Trophy to his resume would undoubtedly nudge him up everyone's all-time list. Saints QB Drew Brees is attempting to reinforce his standing among the elite active QBs. Brees hasn't performed as well or as long as Manning, but no one has been more productive in recent seasons. ...
Another Super Bowl win will serve as an appropriate ending to the decade for the Colts. They were the Aughts' winningest franchise with 115 victories but had only one Super Bowl title, compared to the New England Patriots' three. ...
Is there a better feel-good story than the Saints? Remember when they were the Ain'ts? The franchise is making its first Super Bowl appearance and carries the hopes of a rebuilding region on its shoulders.
Saints Keys For Success
1. Apply pressure on offense. Almost every week, the Saints take the field with the best quarterback and offense. That needs to be the case again in Super Bowl 44. Not only do Brees & Co. need to match points with Manning and the Colts, but they also need to put the pressure on Indianapolis with a quick start. New Orleans is much better when playing with a lead, which opens things up for its run game and opportunistic defense.
2. Apply pressure on defense. The Saints punched their ticket to Miami by punching Minnesota quarterback Brett Favre in the mouth. Though Favre wasn't sacked, he was repeatedly hit hard after throws and knocked to the turf. That led to two penalties against the Saints, but it also led to two fourth-quarter interceptions by a hobbled Favre. New Orleans also forced six fumbles in the game and recovered three. It continued a trend that carried them through the regular season, when they ranked second in the NFL with 39 takeaways. The Saints will have a much harder time, though, trying to rattle a Colts offense that annually ranks among the best ball-control units in the league. Manning makes quick, smart decisions and generally prevents his team from making costly mistakes. New Orleans probably won't blitz the intelligent Manning often, but defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will try to confuse him by disguising schemes and bringing timely pressure.
3. Stop the run. The Saints' defense has been gashed by the run for the past few months, but the Colts can't really run the ball. Or they choose not to. Either way, they ranked last in the NFL in the regular season with an average of 80.9 rushing yards per game. They have decent options in fourth-year pro Joseph Addai and rookie Donald Brown if they decide they can burn a Saints defense that will likely focus most of its effort on coverage. But it's hard to believe the Colts will take the ball out of Manning's hands too often in the biggest game of the season.
Colts Keys For Success
1. Continue to run, a little. An offense with zero balance -- No. 2 in passing, No. 32 in rushing -- still needs to complement Manning's dangerous arsenal with an occasional dash of Addai and Brown. The ground tandem doesn't need to generate 150 rushing yards, but it needs to be effective when it's called upon. The threat of the run will make Manning's play-action fakes more potent and open up the downfield passing game.
2. Deal with the Saints' screens and short passes. Brees isn't the least bit shy when it comes to taking shots down the field, but he's expert at foiling aggressive defenses with dump-offs to running backs Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas. They combined for 86 receptions, 637 yards and 5 touchdowns during the regular season. The Colts utilize an aggressive defensive front led by ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis, and it can be neutralized with screens.
3. Spread the ball around. Anyone who questioned the depth of Manning's receiving corps was silenced after the AFC championship game. Pro Bowl receiver Reggie Wayne and Pro Bowl tight end Dallas Clark combined for just seven catches, 90 yards and one touchdown. Young receivers Pierre Garcon (11 catches, 151 yards, 1 TD) and Austin Collie (7, 123, 1) torched the Jets' No. 1 defense. The Saints are an opportunistic bunch led by cornerbacks Jabari Greer and Tracy Porter and safety Darren Sharper, but the Colts should be able to spread the field and allow Manning to find favorable matchups.
Injuries at a glance
Saints injuries
Colts injuries
The Bottom Line
It rained the last time the Colts played -- and won -- a Super Bowl in Miami. There should be some lightning bolts in this game. Each team's defense has had its moments this season, and a critical stop or takeaway could determine the outcome. But this game is likely to be about big plays and big yardage. Brees is on the big stage for the first time, but he shouldn't be in awe. Manning is back for a second time in four seasons and definitely won't be. The Colts' experience and their all-world quarterback will prove to be the difference.
Pick: Colts 34, Saints 31
More on the Saints-Colts game:
»
Matchup overview
| Saints have the ball
| Colts have the ball
| Key matchups and scouting reports
| Injury report
| Saints-vs.-Colts stats
| SN expert picks
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